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Oscar Pistorius leaves court after posting bail - as it happened

This article is more than 11 years old
Trial for the murder of Reeva Steenkamp to begin 4 June
Pistorius at uncle's home in Pretoria suburb
Read a summary of the magistrate's bail pronouncement
 Judge raises questions about Pistorius's account
Read our latest news story
 Updated 
Fri 22 Feb 2013 10.02 ESTFirst published on Fri 22 Feb 2013 14.06 EST
Oscar Pistorius in court on 22 February 2013.
Oscar Pistorius in court today. Photograph: PictureNet / Barcroft Media Photograph: PictureNet / Barcroft Media
Oscar Pistorius in court today. Photograph: PictureNet / Barcroft Media Photograph: PictureNet / Barcroft Media

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Summary

We're going to wrap up our live blog coverage of today's Oscar Pistorius bail hearing. Here's a summary of where things stand:

Pistorius, who is charged with the premeditated murder of his girlfriend, Reeva Steenkamp, was released on 1m rand bail, with many conditions. He left court with his family and is staying at an uncle's home in a suburb of Pretoria. He is to next appear in court on 4 June.

Two representatives of the Steenkamp family in court greeted the decision tearfully. A friend of the family said "we trust and hope that justice will prevail."

The Pistorius family cheered as the decision was read, one yelling "Yes!" Oscar Pistorius wept at times as magistrate Desmond Nair explained his decision.

Nair said he did not think Pistorius was a flight risk, he did not think the prosecution had shown that the athlete had a propensity for violence and he did not think there was evidence of likely public outrage if Pistorius was released. He did not think the prosecution's case was so strong that Pistorius' only reasonable reaction were he released would be to flee.

Nair also pointed out holes in Pistorius’ story which may prove important when the case comes to trial. He asked why Pistorius had not ascertained Steenkamp's wherabouts, why he had not verified who was in the toilet and why Steenkamp did not scream back from the toilet, among other questions.

Under the terms of his bail, Pistorius is not to return to his home. He is not to leave South Africa. He must hand over all passports and report to the Brooklyn police station between 7am and 1pm every Monday to Friday.

David Smith, who attended the bail hearing, describes the scene:

There were smiles of relief from Pistorius's family, who gathered in a circle to pray, and a shout of "yes!" from friends who leaped to their feet in the charged courtroom.

Speaking on behalf of Pistorius's family, his uncle Arnold told reporters: "We are relieved of the fact that Oscar got bail today. But at the same time we are in mourning for the death of Reeva with her family...

"As the family, we know Oscar's version of what happened that tragic night and we know that that is the truth and that will prevail in the coming court case."

Oscar Pistorius leaves the Pretoria magistrate's court with his family. Photograph: TJ Lemon/EPA Photograph: TJ Lemon/EPA

Read the full story here.

Here's a two-minute audio clip of magistrate Desmond Nair relaying his decision to grant Pistorius bail. Nair spoke for an hour; this is the end.

After the magistrate announces his decision, at least one man shouts "Yes!":

(via @AntDeRosa)

The bail decision was greeted jubilantly by some Pistorius supporters, to the dismay of the African National Congress women's league, quoted by the Globe and Mail:

ANC women's league: "What is distressing is the reaction of some menin court who jumped up and celebrated ... as if they had won a trophy"

— Geoffrey York (@geoffreyyork) February 22, 2013

Mia Lindeque of Jacaranda News takes a photo outside court: 'I love u Oscar, U stell a hero':

PIC: outside- "I love you Oscar" #OscarPistorius @jacanews ML twitpic.com/c5wyz8

— Jacaranda Newsteam (@Jacanews) February 22, 2013

Pistorius is not scheduled to be back in court until 4 June, almost 15 weeks away. Andrew Harding is BBC African correspondent:

Strange, flat mood now. Such a build up. Such a sense of drama. Now realisation that it was just bail hearing and a long battle lies ahead.

— andrew harding (@BBCAndrewH) February 22, 2013

A friend of Reeva Steenkamp says "we trust and hope that justice will prevail."

Lydia Polgreen is Johannesburg bureau chief for the New York Times:

"I think it is important to remember that someone lost their life," Kim Myers, friend of Reeva, reacting to #Pistorius bail.

— Lydia Polgreen (@lpolgreen) February 22, 2013

Whatever the outcome of the Pistorius case, the Guardian's Adam Haupt writes, South Africa is a country "at war with its women":

Regardless of the circumstances of the shooting, the fact is that yet another woman met a violent end in South Africa – a country at war with its female population. Earlier this month, Bredasdorp teenager Anene Booysen was gang-raped, murdered and mutilated – a case so appalling in its brutality that it made headlines across the globe. And as extreme as this case was, such violence is not isolated.

In 1999, 14-year-old Valencia Farmer was gang-raped and murdered. At the time, we saw a great deal of media outrage at the incident – not unlike the response to the Booysen murder. But, between these two horrific events, we have seen many other instances of gender-based violence that expose the hollow nature of the righteous indignation expressed by public officials, political parties and journalists alike.

According to a 2011 survey by Statistics South Africa, 38.4% of sexual offences were committed by community members known to their victims. Furthermore, 37.2% of victims were murdered by known community members, followed by a spouse/lover (18.2%), and friends/acquaintances (12.1%). According to allAfrica.com, police statistics reveal that in South Africa seven women were murdered each day in 2011, and that one woman gets raped every 17 seconds.

Read the full piece here.

The Pistorius family are giving a press conference now.

His uncle Arnold Pistorius says that the family know Oscar's version of what happened that tragic night is the truth and will prevail.

The family are all relieved about today's ruling but are also in mourning, he says.

And that's it. It was brief.

Magistrate Desmond Nair in 2010. Photograph: Gallo Images/Rex Features Photograph: Gallo Images/Rex Features/Gallo Images / Rex Features

Upon payment of the 100,000 rand he must be released with the following conditions:

He appears in court on 4 June at 8.30am.

He surrenders all passports.

He refrains from applying for any passports.

He refrains from entering any airport.

He surrenders all firearms.

He refrains from possessing any firearms.

He refrains from talking to any witnesses for the prosecution.

He will have a probation officer and correctional official from the date of release until the conclusion of the case.

He shall inform the official of all his movements and ask for permission for any journeys outside Pretoria.

He shall give them a phone number and must be contactable day and night.

He must not be charged with an offence of violence against women.

He must not use drugs or alcohol.

He must not return to his home and must not make contact with any residents of his estate except the Stander family.

1m rand is £73,750.

He says bail is fixed at 1m rand: a cash amount of 100,000 rand to be deposited where the accused will be detained, plus a further 900,000 rand as a gurantee and surety.

Apologies. Those bail conditions were submissions to the court. Nair must decide on the conditions. He is speaking now.

All rise. Nair returns.

Bail is set at 250,000 rand (£18,450).

Pistorius is not to return to his home. He is not to leave South Africa. He must hand over all passports and report to the Brooklyn police station between 7am and 1pm every Monday to Friday.

Pistorius's lawyer, Barry Roux, seems to be telling journalists bail will be set at about 250,000 rand (£18,450).

His lawyer confirms he will not be returning to his house: "He does not want to go back there." #pistorius

— Lucy Bannerman (@Lbannermantimes) February 22, 2013

Summary

Magistrate Desmond Nair has granted bail to Oscar Pistorius. These were the judge’s main reasons:

He did not think Pistorius was a flight risk.

He did not think the prosecution had shown that Pistorius had a propensity for violence.

He did not think the prosecution had shown there would be public outrage if he were released on bail.

He did not think the prosecution’s case was so strong that Pistorius’s only reasonable reaction were he released would be to flee.

But he also pointed out holes in Pistorius’s story which may prove important when the case comes to trial:

Why did he not ascertain Steenkamp's wherabouts?

Why did he not verify who was in the toilet?

Why did Steenkamp not scream back from the toilet?

Why did the deceased and the accused not escape through the bedroom door rather than venture into the toilet?

Why would the accused venture into danger knowing the intruder was in the toilet, leaving himself open to attack? He returned to the dangerous area. What if the intruder was waiting for him?

And he said he had difficulty with the defence's version of why the accused slept on the other side of the bed from usual that night.

Pistorius granted bail

Nair grants bail to Pistorius.

Part of his reasoning is Pistorius's having given a detailed account of his version of events (improbabilities notwithstanding).

None of the factors for refusing bail have been established, Nair says.

Nair says the prosecution did not do enough to establish whether or not Pistorius had a house in Italy.

Had that been done, given Pistorius did not mention it, that would have been important.

Nair turns to the public reaction to bail.

If it would evoke public outrage in any way to release Pistorius on bail, the state should have placed before me where that outrage would be, Nair says – notwithstanding protests outside the court.

Nair says Botha did not spend as much time as he ought to in order to show Pistorius had a propensity towards violence.

Nair says the past incidents as discussed in court are not enough to establish a propensity towards violence.

Nair says he is worried about the past threatening incidents discussed about Pistorius, including a withdrawn charge.

The accused has shown tendencies of aggression and made threats of violence, Nair says.

But one should differentiate between cases and charges, and reported incidents, Nair says.

Nair says he is seeking to establish the ends Pistorius would go to to save himself.

Would he seek to duck and dive all over the world when he may face only a culpable homicide charge in the end?

Nair looks at whether the accused will flee because he is not tied to South Africa. He runs through Pistorius's strong connections to South Africa and the properties he owns in the country.

He also mentions his wealth.

He has said he would surrender his passports, Nair says, and would not apply for others while proceedings are active.

But likewise, Nair says, the state cannot equally show that its case is so strong and watertight that the applicant must come to the conclusion he should flee or evade his trial.

These questions will only be answered if the accused gives evidence in court.

So the weakness of the state case is not such as to constitute exceptional circumsatcnes.

Nair says despite Botha's concessions the "improbabilities" in Pistorius's story "are quite pronounced".

Why did he not ascertain Steenkamp's wherabouts? Why did he not verify who was in the toilet? Why did she not scream back from the toilet? Why did the deceased and the accused not escape through the bedroom door rather than venture into the toilet? Why would the accused venture into danger knowing the intruder was in the toilet, leaving himself open to attack? He returned to the dangerous area. What if the intruder was waiting for him?

He has difficulty with the defence's version of why the accused changed his place in the bed.

The only person who knows what happened is the accused, Nair says.

We are dealing with circumstantial evidence, he says.

Botha asked why Pistorius would charge into danger without his prostheses, Nair recalls.

Of primary importance to Nair is that Botha is not the state's case - he was the police officer first on the scene. He is not the most senior official tasked with the investigation, Nair says.

The South African police service should allocate someone to take control of the crime scene and testify in court, Nair says.

Nair says Botha conceded that it was plausible that Steenkamp could have locked the door in response to Pistorius's warnings about an intruder, but Nair says Nel pointed out she could equally have nervously come out to see what was going on.

Nair says Botha conceded that the witness could not see where the voices and arguing came from or indicate that they were Pistorius and Steenkamp's voices.

His perception of distance was "astounding" - he changed his evidence from saying 600m to 300m to "even less".

Nair points out that there may be other reasons why Steenkamp's bladder was empty, but says Botha was not the right witness to answer this.

Nair says Botha did not seize the memory stick apparently showing offshore accounts.

That is a material factor regarding flight risk, Nair says.

Nair says Botha made several errors and concessions during cross-examination.

He didn't bother to ask for the other phones, Nair says, nor did he check on the number given by the defence in court.

He testified he found phones, but indicated no calls were made from these phones.

At no point after the defence had given him Pistorius's number did he investigate that further.

If it was the deceased phone on the phone it is of crucial importance to see what calls were made, Nair says.

He may well have contaminated the crime scene by not wearing protective covers on his shoes, although Nair thinks that unlikely.

He agreed with the defence about the direction shots were fired from.

Nair feels he could have done more to look into the previous cases that indicated Pistorius might have been involved in.

He "blundered" over the "testosterone" claim, retracting this.

Nair is being quite critical about Botha's investigation and evidence here.

Nair says if the defence had succeeded in showing the state's case to be weak that would be an exceptional circumstance (and lead to the granting of bail).

Nair says he will take into account the violence implicit in the charge and threatening behaviour he has displayed previously.

To recap, so far Nair has simply summarised the proceedings of the last few days, and described the legal definition of bail and his own duties.

He has to decide whether or not to free Pistorius on bail as he awaits his trial, but he wants to emphasise that he is not making a finding of guilt or innoncence in the murder charge.

Nair says the prosecution has only circumstantial evidence but that does not preclude its being a schedule six offence.

Nair says that on the question of premeditated murder he is not at this point as much seized with the issue of finding beyond reasonable doubt that the applicant has committed premeditated murder.

The state met the threshold for a charge of premeditated murder, he says. But Nair says he is not here to decide guilt – that's for the trial judge, he says.

Nair runs through the prosecution's argument that this was a "schedule six" offence – premeditated murder – and Pistorius should not get bail, including the number of shots, the wounds on the righthand side of the body, and witness statements about fighting having been heard.

The defence argued this could never have been premediatated murder, Nair recalls.

He says bail serves the public interest because it reduces the number of prisoners in an already overcrowded system and reduces the number of families deprived of a breadwinner.

Nair is now recalling Roux's cross-examination of Botha, and the concessions Botha made.

Botha conceded that the witnesses did not know exactly who was talking, and he could not confirm that the sounds came from Pistorius's house.

Botha also indicated that his initial testimony that the witness lived 600m away was not correct.

He conceded that he didn't ask the defence team for other Pistorius mobile phones.

Roux said that Steenkamp's bladder was empty. Botha could not deny it and agreed that that helped back up Pistorius's version of events.

Botha said the stepladders were not immediately outside the bathroom window but further away.

Roux said Pistorius felt very vulnerable, and Botha asked why then had Pistorius charged into a dangerous area.

Roux said Pistorius had a patch on his shoulder so had slept on the other side of the bed than usual that night. Botha says he did not know that.

Roux said he did not have a house in Italy, but mentioned a dormant account in Brunswick, North Carolina.

Nair adds that there was no mention of that account in Pistorius's statement.

Nair continues to summarise Botha's evidence.

Botha said when he went back to the scene the 9mm holster was on the side of the bed where the slippers and overnight bag were.

Botha said the accused didn't know who was in the toilet and had not called for his girlfriend.

He said a witness reported hearing loud voices between 2am and 3am that night.

Another witness had claimed to have heard gunshots, seen lights on, heard a female scream, and heard more shots, according to Botha.

Botha, Nair recalls, said he saw Steenkamp lying dead at the bottom of Pistorius's stairs in shorts and a vest.

Botha said Pistorius was a flight risk.

He said the accused spent time overseas and had a house in Italy. He said there was a safe in the kitchen and the accused's attorney arrived with a locksmith to open it and get a memory stick with account numbers for offshore accounts.

Botha said it was a very serious offence in that a defenceless woman was shot three times through a closed door and she was unarmed.

Botha said he had taken statements from neighbours and witnesses.

Botha said there were wounds in Steenkamp's head, elbow, and hip.

There was also a bullet hole through her shorts.

He said rounds of .38 ammunition were found and Pistorius had no licence for these. Pistorius would be charged for these, he said.

Botha said it was a two-storey dwelling. Up the stairs you turn right to the main bedroom. A woman's slippers were there.

In the bathroom were the shower and toilet with their own doors.

In the bathroom he saw a piece of wood from the broken toilet door lying on the floor of the bathroom, with one 1.9mm cartridge in the doorway.

The gun was on the shower mat.

There were two phones in the bathroom on the mat.

The toilet room measured 1.4m x 1.4m.

He found two BlackBerry phones in the cupboard, checked all four phones and no calls had been made.

Shots appeared to have been fired through the door and the key was on the outside of the door. A cricket bat was lying in the bathroom and was sent for tests to see if it was used on the door.

Ballistic experts informed Botha that shots were fired at an angle and the gunmen was 1.5m away.

One bullet hit the wall.

To get from the balcony to the bathroom you would have to pass the beds, Botha said.

There were two dogs outside on the ground area beneath the bedroom.

The angle of the shots indicated they were fired through the top in a downward direction.

He found a packet of testosterone with needles.

He said there were previous incidents written about in the media regarding Pistorius. Nair runs briefly through Botha's descriptions of these.

Nair's recap of these witness statements detailing how Pistorius and Steenkamp met upsets the defendant.

#OscarPistorius OP sobbing and shaking as the magistrate repeats his friends' words about the couple being deeply in love

— Alex Crawford (@AlexCrawfordSky) February 22, 2013

Nair recalls that Pistorius said he would not contact any witnesses.

He said he was not disposed to violence, was not a flight risk, and would hand in all travel documents.

He did not attempt to flee the scene.

He would be able to raise bail.

He undertakes not to interfere with the investigation and says his release will not undermine public order or the justice system.

Nair runs through Pistorius's version of events.

He and Steenkamp went to bed at 10pm. His legs were removed. Aware of violent crime, he slept with his pistol under his bed.

He awoke in the early hours to bring a fan in from the balcony.

He heard a noise in the bathroom. He knew contractors had left ladders outside. He was overcome with terror and believed someone had entered his house. He was too scared to switch a light on.

He grabbed his pistol, screamed that the person should leave, and shouted to Steenkamp.

He went to the bathroom and heard someone in the toilet.

He was vulnerable on his stumps and wanted to protect himself and Steenkamp.

He fired shots at the closed door and again shouted to Steenkamp to call the police.

When he reached the bed he realised she was not in bed and it dawned on him she may have been the person in the toilet.

He screamed for help at the balcony.

He switched on the lights, got a cricket bat, smashed the door, found a key, and found Steenkamp slumped over but alive.

He asked someone to phone an ambulance and he called Netcare.

He opened the door downstairs and then went back up to get Steenkamp.

The deceased died in his arms.

He believes she must have gone to the toilet while he was at the balcony.

He is mortified at having killed her.

He believes the facts will show he did not mean to kill her.

Nair turns to Pistorius's statement.

He runs briefly through Pistorius's side of the story: that he did not mean to kill Reeva Steenkamp, taking her for a burglar, and the objective facts do not refute this. It was not premeditated murder, or even murder at all, according to Pistorius's statement.

Nel had no objection to this.

Nair says there was the possibility that if Pistorius had been kept in prison and his consultations with Roux had been blocked in any way, it might have delayed the bail hearing.

He wanted to avoid this.

Nair says it is usual practice for the applicant to be detained in prison rather than at a police station. But counsel for the accused said he needed to consult with him frequently. Nair was convinced by this argument of Roux's.

Nair runs through the hearing earlier this week that led to his ruling that this was a schedule six offence (a charge of premeditated murder).

He introduces the applicant: Oscar Pistorius, a professional athlete. Barry Roux appears for him. Gerrie Nel appears for the state.

But he appreciates the need for freedom of expression and has tried to accomodate the press wherever he could, Nair says.

He talks about photographers in other cases "zooming in on the accused, flashing at will" – he did not want that to happen in the Pistorius case.

Nair is discussing rulings on the "distorting effects" of televised hearings, explaining why he has not allowed this.

The tension is mounting at Pretoria magistrates court with a decision imminent on whether athlete Oscar Pistorius will be granted bail, writes David Smith from Pretoria.

The morning session saw a final duel between the prosecution and defence, including debate over whether a world-famous double-amputee with prosthetic legs poses a flight risk if released.

Prosecutor Gerrie Nel said Pistorius has the "money, means and motive" to flee if given bail, and described how WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange is just as well known as Pistorius but skipped bail by seeking refuge in London's Ecuadorian embassy.

But defence advocate Barry Roux contended: "Mr Pistorius, every time he goes through security at airport, there's commotion ... He cannot go unnoticed through airport security."

As magistrate Desmond Nair pondered whether Pistorius could conceal his prostheses and "duck and dive" in a foreign country, Roux told the court: "Those legs need maintenance and adjustment on a monthly basis." Pistorius also requires medical attention for his stumps, he added.

The crowded courtroom now includes close friends of Reeva Steenkamp, the girlfriend shot by Pistorius, and the man now leading the investigation, Lieutenant Geneal Vineshkumar Moonoo.

Nair said he was in an "unenviable position" and would make his ruling at 2.30pm local time (12.30pm GMT).

Oscar Pistorius in court this morning. Photograph: AP Photograph: /AP

Pistorius ruling to come at 2.30pm local time (12.30pm GMT)

The defence rests. Nair announces he will rule on the bail application at 2.30pm local time (12.30pm GMT).

He thanks both sides for their summations, and says he is now in the unenviable position of having to make a decision.

Roux says he did not expect the prosecution to seriously argue that Pistorius was a flight risk.

Nair is again talking about Pistorius having to "duck and dive" if he skips bail.

Roux mocks Nel's argument that Pistorius is a flight risk; every time he goes through airport security it causes a commotion, he says. It is impossible for this man to disappear. His legs need constant maintanence and he needs medical attention for his stumps, he says.

Roux says it makes sense that Pistorius went downstairs to open the front door before carrying Steenkamp's body down, because the security guard is on his way and he wants to let him in. There's nothing improbable about that, he says.

Nair asks how long it was between the shooting and Pistorius telling anyone he thought there was a burglar.

Roux points out that Nel earlier described Pistorius as "firing blindly" – blindly, not deliberately, he says.

Talking about Nel's points regarding the placing of the mobile phones and gun and why the house door was unlocked, Roux says it makes sense that he would go to the toilet, try the door, and drop the gun there. "That's where I would expect it to be." It only makes sense that he put the gun down while trying to open the toilet door, he says.

#OscarPistorius Defence describing the frantic effort he says OP made to save Reeva's life. OP is sobbing as he hears this

— Alex Crawford (@AlexCrawfordSky) February 22, 2013

Nair says even if it was an intruder, didn't Pistorius intend to kill? So what charge should it be?

Roux says culpable homicide.

Roux says if he were prosecuting he would argue it was culpable homicide not murder. "He did not want to kill Reeva," Roux says. The charge here is not that he wanted to kill an unknown burglar, he says.

Roux says the defence know there was no burglar in the toilet.

If Pistorius acted outside what a reasonable man would have done, then it could be culpable homicide, Roux says.

Nair begins to ask questions.

Roux, Pistorius's defence lawyer, says the most crucial part of his reply will be that the prosecution misinterprets the assinging of intent. He says you can't transfer intent from one person to another ie if you intend to kill a burglar but you kill someone else that doesn't mean you intended to kill that someone else.

The new investigating officer, Lieutenant General Vineshkumar Moonoo, who replaced Hilton Botha yesterday, is in court, according to Karyn Maughan of eNCA News.

New #OscarPistorius investigating officer in court. Photographers clamber to capture him, deep in discussion with prosecutors. @encanews

— Karyn Maughan (@karynmaughan) February 22, 2013

With that Nel concludes his argument. Defence lawyer Barry Roux is about to respond but a 10 minute break is announced.

#OscarPistorius Court adjourns for ten minutes. Pistorius stands and quietly mumbles before walking out.

— Mandy Wiener (@MandyWiener) February 22, 2013

But ducking and diving every day on those prosthetic legs, asks Nair.

Yes, says Nel, prompting laughter from the gallery and annoying Nel.

We can't treat a person differently because he has a disability, says Nel.

The prosecution's version is based on objective facts, Nel says. He says Pistorius is a flight risk.

Nel: "I don't think one can criticise Botha for saying the applicant is a flight risk. It's a serious matter."

— David Smith (@SmithInAfrica) February 22, 2013

Nel says the court should refuse bail.

The onus is on Pistorius to provide his version of events, and his version is improbable, he says.

Nel returns to the restaurant incident, saying it's a terrible thing to handle a gun in a public place.

He says there is no evidence before the court that Steenkamp's bladder was empty when she died (as the defence have stated in order to indicate she was going to the toilet rather than hiding from Pistorius).

#Pistorius magistrate fidgeting in chair, looks eager to wrap this up. Prosecution reading Oscar's wikipedia on iPad

— Daniel Howden (@howden_africa) February 22, 2013

He says Botha never conceded Pistorius stood at the entrance to the bathroom when he fired the shots.

#OscarPistorius Nel: one shot could have been fired from the passage. But not the other three - casings found in bathroom. BB

— Barry Bateman (@barrybateman) February 22, 2013

Nel questions why Pistorius spent time taking Steenkamp downstairs after breaking down door. "You have to save her life."

— David Smith (@SmithInAfrica) February 22, 2013

Why did he go downstairs to unlock the door before carrying her down, Nel asks.

Nel says Pistorius is apparently a paranoid man who slept with windows and balcony doors open. He has to explain that. He's afraid of crime and yet his front door was unlocked – why?

Nel says Pistorius can pay any amount of bail, and his international status means he can be accomodated anywhere.

Nel: "He must realise that long term imprisonment is almost guaranteed... He might think he'll be acquitted. A lot of people think that."

— David Smith (@SmithInAfrica) February 22, 2013

Nel says Pistorius is worried about his sponsorships and his image. "Always me."

He says Pistorius has been protected too much – and now a person is dead.

He points out that the cabinet minister for women and children came to the first day of this hearing. That's how serious this case is to the government, Nel says.

Pistorius threatened people with violence (on previous occasions). He got away with discharging a firearm in a public place, says Nel.

He says if Justin Divaris, a friend of Pistorius's who gave evidence in favour of him, was here he would ask him: what do you know?

Pistorius fired four shots "blindly" into a little cubicle. Not one or two, but four. It must have been horrific, says Nel.

Pistorius's face crumples with emotion again.

— David Smith (@SmithInAfrica) February 22, 2013

But you don't need to be an expert to witness where things were found (ie the gun and the phones), says Nel.

He says Botha thought Pistorius was 1.5m from the toilet door when he shot, and says Botha gave evidence of the angle of the shot. He concedes Botha is not an expert.

Nel recalls the defence's claims that Pistorius had a shoulder problem and slept on Steenkamp's usual side of the bed instead of his own on the night in question. "It will be very difficult for the state to test that – but we'd like to test it."

Why didn't the defence give the police the phone that was taken from the scene?

Nel: if #OscarPistorius knew that there was another phone that was removed from the scene, why didn't defense offer it? @encanews

— Karyn Maughan (@karynmaughan) February 22, 2013

Nel says on the available evidence Pistorius was in possession of unlicenced ammunition – even if it was his father's.

Nel: "The fact that we have one survivor of that tragic night is difficult for the state."

— David Smith (@SmithInAfrica) February 22, 2013

Nel says what we know is she was barricaded in to the toilet, there were two phones in the bathroom and those phones were never used to make calls. He says he is not saying Pistorius didn't make calls after the shooting.

Nair asks if he has shown that the second phone was Steenkamp's. No, says Nel, but Pistorius hasn't denied it.

He claims that after the shooting it is implausible for Pistorius to say he then immediately thought it might have been Steenkamp he shot, rather than searching all through the rest of the house for her.

Nel says he is not saying it was planned weeks or days ahead, but on the night, after she locked herself in the toilet.

He suggests Steenkamp locked herself in the toilet either to escape a fight or the gun.

Nel suggests Pistorius decided: I have my gun, I want to shoot her, and when they ask me about it I'll say I thought it was an intruder.

Nair asks: but if it was planned, wouldn't he have set up the scene to make it look like there was a burglar?

Why would the witnesses lie about hearing noise that night, asks Nel. Is it coincidence that the neighbour heard arguments, screams and shots? That's improbable, he says.

We agree that Pistorius cried at the scene, says Nel. That's expected; that's remorse. He was sorry he had shot her and his career was gone, he won't be able to travel any more. He felt sorry for himself, says Nel. It's a possibility.

Nel says the burglar story was something Pistorius had planned he would say.

Nel says Pistorius's burglar claim was all part of the planning. "As soon as they confront me, I'll say it was a burglar."

— David Smith (@SmithInAfrica) February 22, 2013

He suggests Pistorius and Steenkamp would have had to pass each other as she walked to the bathroom and he back from the balcony.

It's always easy to give a version, says Nel, especially when there's only one person to give their version.

He slept on the lefthand side of the bed, she on the right - why didn't they bump into each other when he went out, Nel asks.

On Pistorius's version, she must have been in the toilet already when he came back from the balcony carrying the fan, Nel says. It's improbable.

#OscarPistorius Pros saying its improbable that in the time OP took to bring in fan from balcony, Reeva went to toilet without him noticing

— Alex Crawford (@AlexCrawfordSky) February 22, 2013

The bullet went through her shorts, making Pistorius's account that she was shot while going to the toilet "improbable", says Nel (because it indicates she was wearing them when shot).

She didn't say anything, Nel says. Not a word. 

Pistorius said he heard a sound in the toilet, but he never heard her get up from bed, says Nel.

Nel says that the defence has argued that Hilton Botha, the investigating officer, made concessions in his evidence.

But the position of the cellphone remains. The positions of the gun and cartridges remain, he says.

Nel says that the bullet shot through Steenkamp's shorts tells a story.

To find Pistorius's version probable is a stretch, he says.

Nel asks: why would a woman, in a toilet, when someone shouts, not say: where are you? What's going on?

Nel says Pistorius wants it to be business as usual. Give him bail, let him go out and carry on with his career, let him train.

But it cannot be business as usual, he says.

Nel says the state has a strong case.

Nel says Pistorius's decision to submit an affidavit rather than testify shows he doesn't take the proceedings seriously. He decided not be "tested" by court questioning.

Nel says the way he read the affidavit was that Pistorius was saying he did nothing wrong - not culpable homicide, nothing.

He does not say he killed Steenkamp unlawfully. That's why Nel says it increases his flight risk.

Pistorius, Nel says, says we have interpreted his affidavit wrongly. But that's his fault, he says; he should have testified.

Magistrate Desmond Nair arrives, greeting Pistorius and then everyone else. The defendant takes his seat.

Prosecutor Gerrie Nel is now going to continue with his argument.

Barry Roux, Pistorius's lawyer, reaches out and grabs his client's hand, saying: "You're going to be OK."

"Thank you, sir," says Pistorius.

I've just been speaking to my colleague David Smith in Pretoria magistrates court. He said that it was possible the magistrate, Desmond Nair, could take the weekend to make his decision. He said that bail for murder in South Africa was not uncommon – partly due to the overcrowding in prisons there – and said he thought it was likely, on balance, that Pistorius would get bail.

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Good morning. Today Oscar Pistorius is expected to find out whether he will be freed on bail as he awaits trial for the murder of his girlfriend, Reeva Steenkamp.

Yesterday Pistorius’s lawyer, Barry Roux, set out the Paralympic and Olympic star’s case that he thought Steenkamp was a burglar when he shot her through the toilet door in the early hours of 14 February, and said his client was not a flight risk and should be granted bail. He denied the killing was premeditated murder, or even murder at all.

But prosecutor Gerrie Nel stated that even going by Pistorius’s own account of the crime, the defendant still deliberately shot and killed a “burglar”. He could not have meant those four shots through the toilet door to have done anything other kill. The defence had not proved the exceptional circumstances necessary for the granting of bail, Nel said.

Today Nel will finish his summing up, and barring unforeseen events – of which, so far in this case, there have been many – magistrate Desmond Nair will announce his decision.

The hearing is due to begin at Pretoria magistrates court at 10am local time (8am GMT). We’ll have live coverage here from then.

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