Liveblog: black smoke signals papal conclave has not yet chosen pope

Here’s a summary of today’s events.

Some 115 cardinals have begun their conclave to choose the next pope. A puff of black smoke from the chimney above the Sistine Chapel this evening signalled that the cardinals had not yet come to a decision. They will now retire to the isolation of St Martha’s House, within the Vatican walls, and reconvene tomorrow morning at 8.30am GMT for more deliberations. They are expected to choose a new pope within the next couple of days.

That's black smoke, all right ...

Black smoke is coming from the chimney. No pope today.

Black smoke ...

I’ve just been speaking to Lizzy Davies in St Peter’s Square, where despite the plummeting temperature the atmosphere remains warm. She told me:

It’s a slightly strange scene in St Peter’s Square at the moment, where I am, where St Peter’s Basilica is being upstaged by a chimney which is being focused in on by at least four big screens in the piazza. Everyone’s training their eyes on that, ignoring everything else, people are chatting excitedly …

I asked Lizzy if the crowd seemed to be made up mostly of devout Catholics or simply interested tourists.

People fall into three camps. There are tourists who have absolutely no shame in saying: we have booked a holiday and this is a historic moment; we don’t believe at all, we’re not religious, but we wanted to be here nonetheless. There are devout Catholics who have come a very long way purely to be here … And then there are the very lucky Catholic tourists who happen to be in Rome and happen to be here at a moment of astonishing importance for their religion, so they’re very happy.

From the Vatican, Lizzy Davies tweets:

In this photo, a man can be seen looking out of his window next to the Sistine Chapel chimney. No smoke yet, I'm afraid.

The AFP news agency just posted this atmospheric picture from St Peter's Square.

The Sistine Chapel chimney has its own – presumably unofficial – Twitter account, with a friendly, if slightly bumptious, writing style ...

Some tweeters are asking how the faithful will see black or white smoke tonight now darkness has fallen in St Peter's Square. It's a good point. But of course the basilica's bell will be rung too if a pope is chosen.

So what happens next? The cardinals should conclude today's session some time between 6.15pm GMT and 7pm GMT this evening. At that point they might or might not have a ballot, and we'll get our first puff of smoke.

After that, presuming the smoke is black and no pope has been chosen, the cardinals will return to St Martha's House for the evening and have dinner, and we'll start again tomorrow.

There is of course a very slight chance that the smoke will be white and the cardinals will choose a pope tonight. If that happens, the Cardinal Dean will ask that man if he is willing to accept, and what his papal name will be. The news will then be announced to the crowd in St Peter’s Square with the words “habemus papam” – we have a pope – and the new pope will then be brought out to greet the crowd. But that's unlikely to be tonight.

Here Vatican spokesman Father Tom Rosica talks about today's mass. Rosica said of Cardinal Angelo Sodano's homily:

There were two moments that really touched me in the homily: when he thanked Pope Benedict, and there was a big round of applause; I think that was unexpected. And also seeing the amount of journalists covering all of this and the respect that the journalists and television people manifested there. I was really taken by that. I got to pray, and I think the whole church was praying for that celebration, and now it begins.

The Vatican TV camera is training its gaze on the chimney on top of the Sistine Chapel, as are dozens of cameras, many of them prudently perched underneath umbrellas.

If you want to skip this live blog over the next few days and just want to know if there's any white smoke yet or not, my colleagues have created this handy graphic you can check.

A spokesman for the Oddschecker.com betting comparison site has just been in touch to say that, having been 5/1 a month ago, Cardinal Angelo Scola of Milan is now odds on favourite to become the next pope at a best price of 5/2. The major mover is Cardinal Odilo Pedro Scherer of Brazil, who is now at 9/2, having been as long as 50/1 two weeks ago.

We know now who is the media's choice for pope, writes John Hooper from Rome: a cheer went up in the Vatican's press room - the Sala Stampa - as Cardinal Sean O'Malley, the Archbishop of Boston, took his vow of secrecy in the Sistine Chapel. Doubtless, the kiss of death for his chances.

Here's the moment Monsignor Guido Marini closed the doors of the Sistine Chapel to begin the conclave.

The doors close and the conclave begins.

The staff are leaving through the doors of the chapel.

"Extra omnes,” says the master of ceremonies, Monsignor Guido Marini, in Latin: everybody out.

The conclave is about to begin.

Down to the last couple of dozen cardinals swearing now.

Cardinal Isaac Thottunkal, aka Moran Mor Baselios Cardinal Cleemis Catholicos, the head of the Syro-Malankara Catholic Church, just took the oath, wearing a very different zucchetto, or skullcap, to the others. 

Lizzy Davies tweets:

The archbishop of São Paulo, Odilo Scherer, a key contender for the job of pope, is just about to take the oath.

My colleague Lizzy Davies tweets:

One by one, they are taking the oath of secrecy.

The cardinals are now lining up one by one to touch the Gospels.

Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, the most senior cardinal, is now leading the cardinals in reading the oath not to reveal any details of their deliberations, to follow the rules of the conclave, and, if elected pope, to defend the rights of the church.

The Catholic News Service explains what is happening in the chapel:

Next the cardinals will swear not to reveal any details of their deliberations, on pain of excommunication. Any staff will be ordered to leave the chapel with the Latin phrase "extra omnes" (everybody out), and a prayer will be read, before the conclave begins.

Here's another picture of the cardinals in the Sistine Chapel.

Here are the cardinals walking into the Sistine Chapel to begin the conclave.

The cardinals are now moving towards the Sistine Chapel, chanting the Litany of Saints.

Inside the Pauline Chapel, the cardinals are preparing to walk to the Sistine Chapel.

This map shows where the Sistine Chapel is, and where St Martha's House, the cardinals residence during the conclave, is.

This video is now showing the procession.

Here's a video of part of this morning's mass at St Peter's Basilica.

Shortly the cardinals are due to either walk or take a minibus through the Vatican gardens from St Martha's House, the residence inside the Vatican where they will be cut off from the outside world during the conclave, to the Apostolic Palace.

After that they will hold a procession through the palace from the Pauline Chapel to the Sistine Chapel, chanting the Litany of the Saints.

US cardinal Timothy Dolan still seems to be tweeting away – his last tweet was only an hour ago – but he had better start weaning himself off the social network pretty soon: at 3.45pm GMT he, like all the other cardinals, will swear not to reveal any details of the conclave's deliberations, on pain of excommunication.

This morning the cardinals attended a special mass in St Peter’s Basilica entitled “Pro Eligendo Romano Pontifice”: “For the Election of the Roman Pontiff”.

The 115 cardinal-electors walked into the church wearing red-orange robes amid Gregorian chanting.

The mass was open to the public, and the Associated Press reports that a few hundred people suffered thunderstorms and pouring rain to stand outside and watch the mass on big TV screens, a few kneeling to pray. In a radio address earlier, American cardinal Timothy Dolan said a calm had taken hold over him, as if "this gentle Roman rain is a sign of the grace of the Holy Spirit coming upon us”.

Cardinal Angelo Sodano, dean of the College of Cardinals, called for unity within the church in his homily during the mass.

"Each of us is therefore called to co-operate with the successor of Peter, the visible foundation of such an ecclesial unity," Sodano said. He said the job of pope was to be merciful, charitable and "tirelessly promote justice and peace”.

The public applauded from the pews when he referred to the “beloved and venerated” Benedict XVI, the former pope, and his “brilliant” pontificate.

"Let us pray for the cardinals who are to elect the Roman pontiff," read one of the prayers during the Mass. "May the Lord fill them with his Holy Spirit with understanding and good counsel, wisdom and discernment."

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A group of women protested from a balcony overlooking St Peter’s Square during the mass to demand female ordination, launching pink smoke into the air.

And US basketball star Dennis Rodman, fresh from his triumphant diplomatic tour of North Korea, is due to arrive “in a makeshift popemobile as he campaigns for Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana to become the church's first black pope”, according to the Associated Press.

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The stove through which the smoke will billow from the Sistine Chapel to indicate that cardinals have chosen a pope – one of the conclave's most theatrical touches.

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The papal conclave leads the news on all of the major news websites in Brazil, where there is hope for a Brazilian pope, notes my colleague Jonathan Watts.

Veja, the country's most influential magazine, lists the qualities of the archbishop of São Paulo, Odilo Scherer. As well as heading the third largest archdiocese in the world, it notes that he is the right age - 63 - and has a good mix of conservatism and open-mindedness.

"If the Cardinals actually look for someone outside of Europe, Dom Odilo seems to be quite strong," it quotes professor William Cook, an expert in the history of the Catholic Church at the State University of New York, as saying. "He is a bishop with pastoral experience, which means he is not a bureaucrat like Benedict XVI. He is Latin American but of German descent, which means he has a European side and should not be seen as too 'exotic' by more conservative cardinals."

The country's biggest newspaper, O Globo, also lauded Scherer as a great communicator, adept at Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and the latest smartphones. It cites a humorous tweet about the traffic in his home city: "I hope the way to heaven proves even more congested than that of São Paulo, because so many people wanting to go there." The paper reports that his family have renewed their passports in case they have to go to the Vatican to see him ordained.

But his brothers are downplaying Scherer's chances. In an interview with Folha de São Paulo, Flavio Scherer described the likelihood of his sibling become pope as "remotíssimas". If he does win, Flavio says the family are "vaccinated against euphoria." The article includes a great black and white picture of the family from 1964, when the future archbishop appears to be trying out an early prototype of what became the Justin Bieber cut.

This breakdown of the college of cardinals by country on the Vatican website shows how Italian-dominated the institution is.

Of 207 cardinals, 113 are from Europe, and 49 of those are from Italy.

Of 117 cardinal-electors – those allowed to choose the next pope – 61 are from Europe and 28 from Italy.

This great interactive, courtesy of La Stampa and VaticanInsider.com, runs through who's who in the process of choosing a pope, and includes some very nice graphics of where the process takes place in the Sistine Chapel and other parts of the Vatican. There's a mini-version below, but click here for the full-size one.

Here is a list of the cardinals' names in Latin, the form likely to be used when the new pope is announced.

La Stampa is also running a papal conclave live blog, here.

Here's live footage of the scene at the Vatican.

So who are the leading candidates?

Well, the bookies’ favourite (William Hill here, Ladbrokes here, Paddy Power here) is Cardinal Angelo Scola, the archbishop of Milan, whose chances seemed to suffer a blow today when anti-mafia detectives carried out a string of raids connected to hospital corruption in his diocese.

As Lizzy Davies and John Hooper explain from Rome, healthcare in Lombardy is the principal responsibility of the regional administration, which for the past 18 years has been run by Roberto Formigoni, a childhood friend of Scola and the leading political representative of the Communion and Liberation fellowship. Until recently, Scola was seen as the conservative group's most distinguished ecclesiastical spokesman.

But anyone wanting to circumvent the 115 cardinals and chose their own pope can now do so, thanks to the Guardian’s Pontifficator. Use the interactive to explore their views on issues from contraception to relations with other faiths, peruse their CVs, and choose the man you think is best qualified for the job.

My top popes came down to Jean-Louis Tauran of France and Manuel Monteiro de Castro of Portugal. It’s fair to say that either would be a surprise pick.

As John Hooper explains in this piece, the cardinals are split into two factions known as “Romans” and “Barbarians”:

The first group includes the power-brokers in the Vatican and their allies, many of whom are Italians; the second faction, bent on shaking the Curia to its foundations, is led by cardinals from the United States and Germany.

But to see it as a contest between conservatives and liberals would be a mistake: after eight years of Benedict XVI and 27 of John Paul II, there are precious few liberals among the cardinals.

The Barbarians, who favour greater transparency within the church, are coalescing around Angelo Scola. The Romans seem to be backing Odilo Scherer, archbishop of São Paulo.

Here Sam Jones runs through the views of many of the 115 cardinals taking part in the conclave, one of whom will walk out of the Sistine Chapel wearing a new cassock and going by a new name, and lists five to watch:

Cardinal Odilo Pedro Scherer, 63 (Brazil)

Appointed archbishop of São Paulo in March 2007, he was created a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI eight months later. Although tipped as a possible candidate, his low profile among other cardinals may be problematic. Leading the archdiocese of São Paulo (one of the largest with 6 million members) means that he has had to demonstrate his strengths and skills. He said in February 2013 that it was "time to have someone from a different culture, someone with new ideas". The cardinal is outspoken on abortion: when Brazil's supreme court voted in 2012 to legalise the termination of foetuses with malformed brains, Scherer asked which group "incompatible with life" would be eliminated next.

Cardinal Angelo Scola, 71 (Italy)

The son of a truck driver, he holds doctorates in philosophy and theology and was professor of theological anthropology at the John Paul II Institute for Studies on Marriage and Family. He was appointed bishop of Grosseto in 1991, patriarch of Venice in 2002, created a cardinal in 2003, and appointed archbishop of Milan in 2011. In spite of his place at the top of the Vatican hierarchy and his academic pedigree, he He has urged the church to do more to appeal to the modern world, arguing it needs to build on the second Vatican council of the 1960s, which proved a landmark moment in Roman Catholic history. An ardent believer in the church's role at the centre of society, he has publicly bemoaned its inability to clearly communicate its message on matters such as marriage. A strong favourite.

Cardinal Christoph Schönborn, 68 (Austria)

The archbishop of Vienna is considered one of the favourites for the papacy. In addition to being a polyglot (he speaks German, French, Italian, English, Spanish and Latin fluently), his education in theology, philosophy and psychology may stand him in good stead. His public stance has been more moderate on issues such as HIV/Aids than some of the other candidates. The cardinal has also gained respect for his handling of the sex abuse scandal stating: "The days of cover-up are over. For a long while the church's principle of forgiveness was falsely interpreted and was in favour of those responsible and not the victims." He was created a cardinal by John Paul II on 21 February 1998.

Cardinal Leonardo Sandri, 69 (Argentina)

Like many Argentinians, the grand chancellor of the Pontifical Oriental Institute is of Italian descent (his parents emigrated to South America from Trentino) – a fact that is unlikely to harm his chances of succeeding Benedict. Sandri, who speaks five languages and has represented the Vatican in the US, Venezuela and Mexico, served as the voice of John Paul II when he was ill with Parkinson's disease. He also announced John Paul's death in 2005. But despite being head of the congregation of Oriental churches – which makes him responsible for Catholics in Bethlehem and elsewhere in the Holy Land – some have noted that his star has been waning in recent years and his current role is less influential than the positions he occupied under John Paul. He was created a cardinal by Benedict on 24 November 2007.

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 55 (Philippines)

Appointed as archbishop of Manila in 2011, he has been hailed by some as a worthy successor to Pope Benedict XVI. The cardinal's youth – he is the second youngest of the cardinals after Cardinal Baselios Cleemis Thottunkal – coupled with his detailed knowledge of Vatican history, his charisma and his progressive outlook make him a strong candidate. If successful, he would be the first Asian pope. Tagle, however, has been outspoken at times. In Rome in October 2012, he told a gathering of bishops that the church should be more ready to admit its mistakes and has been connected to the "Bologna School" of progressive academics who have taken a liberal view of the second Vatican council. He was created a cardinal by Benedict on 24 November 2012.

Andrew Brown also profiles a number of other cardinals here.

Good afternoon. As 115 cardinals gather in the Vatican to decide which of them will become the leader of the world’s 1.2 billion Catholics, welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the conclave that will choose the next pope.

Tonight, some time between 6.15pm and 7pm, the cardinals are expected to hold their first ballot (although they may hold off until tomorrow). A chimney attached to the roof of the Sistine chapel, where the cardinals are meeting, will emit black smoke if no decision has been reached, or white smoke if a pope has been chosen.

If they fail to make a decision this evening, which is highly likely, they will then hold four ballots a day tomorrow and on subsequent days – two in the morning, two in the afternoon – until they have chosen a pope. The smoke will billow up once after the morning ballots and once after the afternoon ones. A two-thirds majority – 77 votes – is needed for outright victory.

My colleague Andrew Brown explains how the ballot works:

The cardinals ballot repeatedly and secretly – each cardinal writes the name of his favoured candidate on a slip of paper, preferably in a disguised hand, and folds it so it is invisible before the votes are reckoned.

If the pope is not chosen after 33 ballots, from that point on the contest becomes a run-off between the two frontrunners.

The cardinals burn their ballot papers after each ballot. But the stove used to burn the ballot papers is no longer the same one that produces the black or white smoke – it was too often too difficult to tell what colour smoke the ballots had produced. So a new device was put in place specifically to produce discernible colours, and the basilica’s bell is rung if the smoke is white, for added clarity.

Once a candidate has been chosen, the Cardinal Dean asks him if he is willing to accept, and what his papal name will be. In Saturday’s Guardian, Cardinal Cormac Murphy-O'Connor, the former leader of the Catholic church in England and Wales, recalled the moment when Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger was asked if he would become pontiff:

I remember the senior cardinal going up to Cardinal Ratzinger and saying: 'Your Eminence, will you accept to be the supreme pontiff of the Catholic church?' And we all waited. He said: 'No. I can't.' And then he said: 'I accept as the will of God.' And then the cardinal said: 'What name will you take?' And he said: 'Benedict.' He must have thought about it the night before.

Once a new pope has been chosen, the news will then be announced to the crowd in St Peter’s Square with the words “habemus papam” – we have a pope – and the new pope will then be brought out to greet the crowd.

As my colleague Sam Jones explains in this excellent piece about the conclave process, although all cardinals are entitled to have their say in the general congregations, only 117 cardinal electors – those cardinals aged under 80 – have the final vote in conclave on who will be the next pope. This year, only 115 of them are attending the conclave as Cardinal Keith O'Brien resigned as archbishop of St Andrews and Edinburgh following allegations of inappropriate behaviour and Cardinal Julius Darmaatmadja of Indonesia said his eyesight was too poor to permit him to go to Rome.

The cardinals are confined to their Vatican guesthouse when not deliberating in the Sistine chapel – and any leaks are punishable by excommunication.

The election of one pope in the 13th century lasted two years, nine months and two days, leading Catholics to board up the cardinals in their chamber and tear the roof off, and then try to starve them out, to try to prompt them to reach a decision. They eventually chose Gregory X.

Your correspondent is happy to report that the current conclave is not expected to last quite as long as that, and should be wrapped up within two or three days. The one that picked Benedict XVI in 2005 ran over two days – although the then-Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger went into that conclave in a stronger position than any of today’s contenders.

Here’s a timetable of what we know so far:

Today

6am GMT: The 115 “cardinal electors” moved into the St Martha’s House residence inside the Vatican walls where they will eat and sleep cut off from the outside world for the duration of the conclave.

9am GMT: Cardinals took part in a special “Pro Eligendo Romano Pontifice” (“For the Election of the Roman Pontiff”) mass in St Peter’s Basilica.

2.45pm GMT: Cardinals either walk or take a minibus in strict isolation through the Vatican gardens from St Martha’s House to the Apostolic Palace.

3.30pm GMT: Cardinals hold a procession through the Apostolic Palace from the Pauline Chapel to the Sistine Chapel as they chant the Litany of Saints.

3.45pm GMT: Cardinals swear not to reveal details of their deliberations on pain of excommunication. Any staff are ordered to leave the chapel with the Latin phrase “extra omnes” and a prayer is read before the first vote is expected to be taken.

6.15pm GMT: Smoke is expected if a vote has been taken. Cardinals recite vespers to conclude their first session.

6.30pm GMT: Cardinals return to St Martha’s House.

7pm GMT: Cardinals have their first conclave dinner.

Tomorrow and successive days until the conclave concludes

5.30am GMT-6.30am GMT: Breakfast at St Martha’s.

6.45am GMT: Departure for Apostolic Palace.

7.15am GMT: Mass in the Pauline Chapel.

8.30am GMT: Prayers and voting in Sistine Chapel.

11.30am GMT: Departure for St Martha’s.

Midday GMT: Lunch. Smoke is expected at about this time.

3pm GMT: Departure for Sistine Chapel.

3.50pm GMT: Prayers and voting in Sistine Chapel.

6.15pm GMT: Vespers in the Sistine Chapel.

6.30pm GMT: Departure for St Martha’s.

7pm GMT: Dinner. Smoke is expected at about this time.

If an earlier vote produces a victor, white smoke will emerge, ending the conclave.

We’ll have full coverage as long as the conclave lasts here.