Syria conflict: UN says 60,000 dead

Here's a summary of today's events:

Syria

At least 60,000 people have died in Syria's conflict, according to UN commissioned study. Announcing the findings UN human rights commissioner Navi Pillay, said: "We can assume that more than 60,000 people have been killed by the beginning of 2013. The number of casualties is much higher than we expected, and is truly shocking."

Casualty count expert Hamit Dardagan called on the UN to be transparent about the figure had been drawn up. The estimate is significantly higher than tallies maintained by activists, he pointed out.

Activist claim 19 people were killed in an air raid on a petrol station near Damascus. Video of the aftermath of the attack showed several charred bodies as well as a bearded dead man who was torn to pieces.

Syrian rebels claim they have the capability to put together and use chemical weapons. The claim is thought to an example of rebel bravado has again highlighted the security of Syria's chemical weapons arsenal.

 Flights into the Syrian city of Aleppo were reportedly halted as rebels and government forces clashed, preventing planes from reaching the international airport, the LA Times reports. An unnamed airport official told AFP that the airport was closed because of rebel attacks."There have been continued attempts by opposition militants to target civilian aircraft, which could cause a humanitarian disaster," the official was quoted as saying. Rebels also attacked an airbase in Idlib province.

 Residents of Damascus began the new year to the boom of artillery hitting southern and eastern outskirts, where rebels hold an arc around the capital," Reuters reports. "There is no 'Happy New Year'," Moaz al-Shami, an opposition activist who lives in central Mezzeh district, said over Skype. He said rebel fighters attacked one checkpoint in Barzeh district on Tuesday morning. Opposition groups said mortar bombs hit the southwest suburb of Daraya, which the army attacked on Monday to retake it from rebels.

 A group of 20 Syrian soldiers including a general have become the latest to flee to Turkey, according to a Turkish diplomat. "The soldiers who fled to Turkey include a general, three colonels and several other officers," the source told AFP.

Libya

The UN needs to been transparent about how it came up with figure of 60,000 dead in the Syrian conflict, according to Hamit Dardagan, co-founder of Iraq Body Count and co-director of the Every Casualty programme at Oxford Research Group.

Announcing the estimate UN human rights chief Navi Pillay said: "Given that there has been no let-up in the conflict since the end of November, we can assume that more than 60,000 people have been killed by the beginning of 2013."

But so far there has been few detail about how the figure was drawn up, and no no breakdown by ethnicity or information about whether the dead were rebels, soldiers or civilians.

Dardagan told the Guardian "We need some transparency about the methods used."

He said:

If it is done on the basis of an estimates it should not be presented as a single number but as a range. If they haven’t done estimates there has to be some sort of documentary evidence on how they have arrived at this number.

It is for the UN to tell us not just what the figure is but what the basis for that figure is. We can’t just rely on the authority of the UN to have some magic insight into what’s going on unless they tell us what that it.

It is considerably higher figure than activists have managed to put together using an extensive networks within Syria. So one really has to wonder what the UN has got that they haven’t got.

Activists have been doing this in the right way. They have been documenting their estimates. It is another thing to go in and check that they are right, but at least they have been showing their wears in an straight forward way and leaving others to investigate.

At 60,000 deaths the UN's increased new estimate for the number of people killed in Syria is significantly more than estimates from activists. 

It comes after after human rights activists documented the deaths of 36,332 people in 2012.

The Syrian Network for Human Rights said it documented every death by name, date, and in many cases with video and photographic evidence.

It said the figure is likely to be an underestimate: "It must be noted that there are many cases that we were unable to reach and document particularly in the case of massacres and besieged areas where the Syrian government frequently blocks communication. This indicates that the actual death toll is likely to be higher as there are dozens of cases in which residents buried the bodies in mass graves to prevent the spread of diseases."

It's tally includes 3,327 children.

The Centre for Documentation of Violations in Syria, another tally maintained by activists, estimates that 39,607 people have been killed since the uprising began. Its total does not include government forces killed in the conflict.

The Syrian Martyr Data base, a third count maintained by activists, currently puts the figure at 47,886.

New UN analysis suggests over 60,000 people have been killed in the Syria conflict, 15,000 more than previously estimated.

Reuters reports:

At least 60,000 people have died in Syria's conflict, UN Human Rights Commissioner Navi Pillay said on Wednesday, citing an "exhaustive" U.N.-commissioned study.

Over five months of analysis, researchers cross-referenced seven sources to compile a list of 59,648 individuals reported killed between 15 March 2011, and 30 November 2012.

"Given there has been no let-up in the conflict since the end of November, we can assume that more than 60,000 people have been killed by the beginning of 2013," Pillay said.

"The number of casualties is much higher than we expected, and is truly shocking."

Rebel claims about chemical weapons capability should be treated with caution, according to Aaron Stein non-proliferation programme manager at the Istanbul thinktank the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies.

A political adviser of the Free Syrian Army, told Turkey's state-run Anatolia news agency that the Syrian opposition had the necessary capability and raw materials to produce chemical weapons (see earlier).

Stein said this is a potentially dangerous development, but he suspects rebel bravado. In an email to the Guardian he said:

Chemical precursors are very toxic and require specialised training and equipment to handle ... the process of filling chemical shells requires specialised facilities. They are usually underground so as to prevent the release of the toxic chemicals. I have a feeling that this is rebel boasting and an ill-fated attempt at deterring Assad. However, Aum Shinrikiyo [the Japanese cult responsible for the 1995 nerve gas attack on the Tokyo subway] was able to produce sarin and mustard gas and release both in Japan.

It is not impossible for a non-state actor to produce chemical agents, but I don't think that it is very likely. However, the claim should not be dismissed and any release of chemical weapons in Syria would need to be investigated so as to determine who is responsible.

It is not beyond the realm of possibility that a rebel group could try and use chemical weapons against Assad's forces or set them off themselves to try and provoke an international response.

Stein said securing chemical weapons sites inside Syria should be a priority for the international community.

In a blogpost last month he wrote:

All bets are off if a beleaguered Syrian army unit tasked with guarding the weapons come under heavy and sustained attack by a determined enemy. Moreover, if Assad falls and his army abandons their positions, a determined group, or even a large number of men with minimal means, could have time to access the site and make off with chemical weapons shells.

Without a rigid system of accountancy, outside forces, whether they be Syrian, American, Turkish, or from the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, would have an incredibly difficult time determining if anything was missing.

Activists say dozens of people have been killed or wounded in an air raid on a petrol station near the capital, Damascus, AP reports.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and the Local Coordination Committees say the airstrike occurred Wednesday in the eastern Damascus suburb of Mleiha.

An amateur video posted online showed several charred bodies as well as a bearded dead man who was torn to pieces.

It also showed several vehicles on fire as black smoke billowed from the Nawras Gas Station.

The videos appeared genuine and corresponded to other AP reporting on the events depicted.

Extremely disturbing video purports showed the aftermath of the attack [warning: content]. It includes images of burning bodies and a severed torso. It cannot be independently verified.

At least 30 were killed in the attack, Reuters reports citing activists.

Rebels have attacked Taftanaz airbase in northern Syria, AP and Reuters report, citing the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Reuters noted that jihadi fighters were involved in the clashes.

The al Qaida-linked al-Nusra Front, Ahrar al-Sham Brigade and other units operating in Syria's northwestern province of Idlib were attacking the Afis military airport near Taftanaz, the pro-opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

There was no immediate account of the fighting around the air base from Syrian state media.

Insurgents trying to topple President Bashar al-Assad see his air power as their main threat. They hold swathes of eastern and northern provinces, as well as a crescent of suburbs around the capital, Damascus, but have been unable to protect rebel-held territory from relentless attack by helicopters and jets.

In recent months, rebel units have besieged several military installations, especially along Syria's main north-south artery from Aleppo, its most populous city, to Damascus.

The Observatory's director, Rami Abdelrahman, said Wednesday's attack was the latest of several attempts to capture the base. A satellite image of the airport shows more than 40 helicopter landing pads, a runway and aircraft hangars.

Syrian rebels claim they could put together and use chemical weapons, the Turkish daily Today's Zaman reports.

Bassam al-Dada, political adviser of the Free Syrian Army, told Turkey's state-run Anatolia news agency that the Syrian opposition has the necessary capability and raw materials to produce chemical weapons, it reports.

He said if Syria's embattled President Bashar al-Assad threatens the Syrian opposition fighters with chemical weapons, he should know that “we also possess them.”

Noting that they have the ability to put together components to produce chemical weapons thanks to defected army officers who are experts in this regard, al-Dada added that they won't use them if the Syrian regime avoids using them. “If we ever use them, we will only hit the regime's bases and centers,” he stressed.

This time last year many analysts and commentators predicted that Bashar al-Assad would be toppled by now.

Those predicting Assad's demise in 2012 included Michael Tomasky in Daily Beast; the BBC's diplomatic editor James Robbins; David Ignatius of the Washington Post; and Jessica Tuchman Mathews, president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who boldly stated: "At this time next year, Bashar al-Assad will be a former president and the present Syrian regime will be gone."

So hats off to the minority of pundits who were more cautious about Assad's future. They included the Independent's Patrick Cockburn; the BBC's Owen Bennett Jones; and former US state department adviser Heather Hurlburt.

Hurlburt correctly stated that Syria was set to be "more protracted and awful" than others forecast. "There's a sort of Zimbabwesque scenario there, that I really worry about," she told Bloggingheads TV.

In the current round of New Year predictions it is difficult to find anyone predicting Assad surviving 2013.

The Council on Foreign Relations The World Next Year: 2013 said the "end game" was approaching for the Assad regime.

There was a similar consensus on the BBC's Correspondent's Look Ahead despite some duff predictions on Assad last year. Chief correspondent Lyse Doucet also used the phrase "end game" and predicted: "There will be a move to a post Assad order. It is not clear whether Assad will step aside, be killed in his bunker, have to flee somewhere else, but I think there will be a new order."

Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Centre, cautions:

He should know. Last year Shaikh told Reuters "2012 should be the year of Assad leaving".

Syria watcher Joshua Landis comes closest to predicting that Assad will survive the year, or at least half of it.

Landis told NPR:

I don’t think he’ll be able to hold Damascus forever. I think it’s going to be a lot longer and a more bitter struggle than most people predict. Many have been saying that by this summer, in June, he’ll be out and finished. I suspect it’s going to take longer than that.

Happy New Year and welcome to Middle East Live.

We start with roundup of the latest developments and some of the key stories over the Christmas period:

Syria

Flights into the Syrian city of Aleppo were reportedly halted as rebels and government forces clashed, preventing planes from reaching the international airport, the LA Times reports. An unnamed airport official told AFP that the airport was closed because of rebel attacks."There have been continued attempts by opposition militants to target civilian aircraft, which could cause a humanitarian disaster," the official was quoted as saying.

Residents of Damascus began the new year to the boom of artillery hitting southern and eastern outskirts, where rebels hold an arc around the capital," Reuters reports. "There is no 'Happy New Year'," Moaz al-Shami, an opposition activist who lives in central Mezzeh district, said over Skype. He said rebel fighters attacked one checkpoint in Barzeh district on Tuesday morning. Opposition groups said mortar bombs hit the southwest suburb of Daraya, which the army attacked on Monday to retake it from rebels.

A group of 20 Syrian soldiers including a general have become the latest to flee to Turkey, according to a Turkish diplomat. "The soldiers who fled to Turkey include a general, three colonels and several other officers," the source told AFP.

 UN-Arab League envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi, said the country risked slithering into "hell". Following talks in Moscow with Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, Brahimi said there was no alternative to negotiations. The country faced two stark choices, he said – a serious, Syrian-led political dialogue between the rebels and the regime, or what he darkly called "Somali-isation".

Syria's opposition leader rejected an invitation from Russia for peace talks. Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib, head of the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces, said:

If we don't represent the Syrian people, why do they invite us? And if we do represent the Syrian people why doesn't Russia respond and issue a clear condemnation of the barbarity of the regime and make a clear call for Assad to step down? This is the basic condition for any negotiations.

 The head of Syria's military police defected from the army and declared allegiance to the opposition. Major General Abdelaziz Jassim al-Shalal was shown making a statement confirming his defection in a video broadcast on al-Arabiya TV, saying he was joining "the people's revolution".

 Former foreign ministry spokesman, Jihad Makdissi, is co-operating with US intelligence officials who helped him flee to Washington a month ago. The Guardian reported at the time that he had fled for the US, possibly in return for asylum. This has now been confirmed.

Iraq

The influential Shia cleric, Moqtada al-Sadr, has expressed support for fresh protests against Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a fellow Shia but his political opponent, the New York Times reports. Sadr said: “The Iraqi spring is coming. We are with the demonstrators, and Parliament must be with them, not against them. The legitimate demands of the demonstrators, by which people know what they want, should be met.”

Egypt

A popular Egyptian political satirist is being investigated for allegedly insulting president Mohamed Morsi, the BBC reports. A formal complaint was brought against Bassem Youssef for "undermining the standing" of the president his thrice weekly television show. Youssef, who is likened to the US comedian Jon Stewart, portrayed the president as a pharaoh in a sketch and referred to him as super Morsi. 

The electoral commission announced on Christmas Day that voters had approved overwhelmingly the constitution drafted by President Mohamed Morsi's Islamist allies. Final figures from the elections commission showed the constitution was backed by 63.8% of voters, giving Islamists their third straight victory at the polls since Hosni Mubarak was toppled in a 2011 revolution.

As bad as the last few weeks have been, Egypt still has a chance to muddle through and end up in a pretty decent place by this coming spring, argues Marc Lynch in Foreign Policy magazine.

It would not be the worst outcome for a chaotic transition if Egypt emerges in March with a constitution establishing institutional powers and limiting the powers of the presidency, a democratically elected but weakened president, a Muslim Brotherhood in power but facing unprecedented levels of scrutiny and political opposition, the military back in the barracks, a mobilised and newly relevant political opposition, and a legitimately elected Parliament with a strong opposition bloc. The costs may have been too high and the process a horror movie, but getting a constitution in place and parliamentary elections on the books puts Egypt just a bit closer to that vision.

Bahrain