After Houla massacre, Russia cools toward Syria

Russia joined UN Security Council members in condemning Syria's government after a massacre in Houla. Some Russian officials speculate the massacre was carried out by rebels to garner sympathy.

|
AP
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, left, speaks to his British counterpart William Hague during their meeting in Moscow, Monday, May 28.

For the first time, Moscow has joined other United Nations Security Council members in condemning the Syrian government for violence against civilians. It could signal a deeper shift in Russian foreign policy which, until now, has stubbornly refused to countenance any measures aimed at easing out Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. 

At least 108 people, a third of them children, died in a weekend massacre in Houla in one of the worst violations of the six-week-old ceasefire authored by UN envoy to Syria Kofi Annan and supported by Russia.

The Syrian government insists that it is not responsible for the mass killings, which it blames on "terrorists." The spokesman for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Rupert Colville, said today that most of the victims had been "executed" with knives and gunfire.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, meeting with his British counterpart yesterday, said there was no doubt that the Syrian government had used disproportionate force in a civilian area, and admitted that "Russia has (a) particular role in applying pressure" on Mr. Assad to adhere to Annan's peace plan.

"There can be no doubt that the authorities used artillery and tanks," in Houla, Mr. Lavrov said. "But guilt should be apportioned objectively…  We are insisting on the carrying out of a probe into what happened in Houla. We need to understand how this happened to make sure it will never be repeated."

Other Russian officials gave credence to the theory that the massacre might have been carried out by pro-rebel forces as a "provocation" aimed at strengthening the case for foreign intervention to remove Assad from power.

"It's clear that both sides were responsible (for the massacre in Houla), because people were killed not only by heavy weapons but also with pistols and knives, which is not the army's way," says Georgy Mirsky, a researcher at the official Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow.

Lavrov said that, for now at least, Russia remains committed to Annan's faltering six-point plan, and reiterated Moscow's belief that some Western and Arab countries may be working to undermine it. "We support Kofi Annan's plan and everyone should do everything for this to succeed," he said. "We sense from our contacts that some other forces are not committed. There should no be external interference," in Syria.

But some Russian analysts say the mood in Moscow is shifting against Assad, and the day may soon come when the Kremlin will give its assent to stronger measures.

"It's clear now that the Assad regime is weakening," says Viktor Kremeniuk, deputy director of the official Institute of USA-Canada Studies in Moscow. "The pressure on him will grow, until he's either beaten or runs away. Russia is sticking to its positions, but at the same time it has to show that it is understanding of the situation and flexible enough. The truth is that the Security Council matters more for Russia than Syria does."

Syria is a long-standing client state of the former Soviet Union and Russia, and a major importer of Russian arms. It's also host to a Russian naval supply center at Tartous on the Mediterranean coast.

"Assad suits us. What might happen to Russia-Syria relations if he were gone is anybody's guess. We could lose our only ally in the Middle East," says Pavel Gusterin, an expert in Arab Studies at the official Institute of Oriental Studies in Moscow. "But Lavrov carefully and delicately pointed out that supporting Assad as leader of Syria is not of principal importance to Russia, which I would take as a signal to Assad. If Moscow supports Assad to the bitter end, and he fails, then it would be a blow not only for him but for Russia as well."

Most Russian experts argue that, despite the outrage over military violence, there is no good way out in Syria, and the slender reed the Annan plan offers should be given greater support than it's getting in the West.

"Moscow still supports Assad and backs the Annan plan as the only realistic way to a settlement. The Western idea of a (Yemen-style) solution, which would ease Assad out peacefully with guarantees and immunity, is just not workable for Syria. Once Assad goes, the whole system will come tumbling down," Mr. Mirsky says.

You've read  of  free articles. Subscribe to continue.
Real news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.
What is the Monitor difference? Tackling the tough headlines – with humanity. Listening to sources – with respect. Seeing the story that others are missing by reporting what so often gets overlooked: the values that connect us. That’s Monitor reporting – news that changes how you see the world.

Dear Reader,

About a year ago, I happened upon this statement about the Monitor in the Harvard Business Review – under the charming heading of “do things that don’t interest you”:

“Many things that end up” being meaningful, writes social scientist Joseph Grenny, “have come from conference workshops, articles, or online videos that began as a chore and ended with an insight. My work in Kenya, for example, was heavily influenced by a Christian Science Monitor article I had forced myself to read 10 years earlier. Sometimes, we call things ‘boring’ simply because they lie outside the box we are currently in.”

If you were to come up with a punchline to a joke about the Monitor, that would probably be it. We’re seen as being global, fair, insightful, and perhaps a bit too earnest. We’re the bran muffin of journalism.

But you know what? We change lives. And I’m going to argue that we change lives precisely because we force open that too-small box that most human beings think they live in.

The Monitor is a peculiar little publication that’s hard for the world to figure out. We’re run by a church, but we’re not only for church members and we’re not about converting people. We’re known as being fair even as the world becomes as polarized as at any time since the newspaper’s founding in 1908.

We have a mission beyond circulation, we want to bridge divides. We’re about kicking down the door of thought everywhere and saying, “You are bigger and more capable than you realize. And we can prove it.”

If you’re looking for bran muffin journalism, you can subscribe to the Monitor for $15. You’ll get the Monitor Weekly magazine, the Monitor Daily email, and unlimited access to CSMonitor.com.

QR Code to After Houla massacre, Russia cools toward Syria
Read this article in
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2012/0529/After-Houla-massacre-Russia-cools-toward-Syria
QR Code to Subscription page
Start your subscription today
https://www.csmonitor.com/subscribe