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President Mohamed Morsi depicted as an octopus in graffiti on a wall of the presidential palace
President Mohamed Morsi depicted as an octopus in graffiti on a wall of the presidential palace. Photograph: Hassan Ammar/AP
President Mohamed Morsi depicted as an octopus in graffiti on a wall of the presidential palace. Photograph: Hassan Ammar/AP

Egypt tense and polarised before referendum on new constitution

This article is more than 11 years old
Much of draft is unexceptionable, but there is bitter disagreement over role of Islam after Morsi's adoption of sweeping powers

Smiley faces in bright orange and yellow adorn the barrier of huge concrete blocks outside the Ettihadiyeh Palace in the Cairo suburb of Heliopolis, though there is tension on the faces of the Republican Guards manning its entrances and the sand-coloured tanks lined up in the winter sunshine.

Looking out from the elegant latticed windows, President Mohamed Morsi can easily see the crude images of him outside. Posters portray the Muslim Brotherhood's leader as a sinister black octopus, giving a stubby finger to the Egyptian people, in pharaonic headdress and with a diagonal red stripe slashed across his bearded face. "No to dictatorship," declares a giant banner strung across the road. "No to the constitution," says another. Others denounce the rule of the Murshid – the Brotherhood's powerful "supreme guide".

Demonstrators from both camps were out in force on Friday for a final push before Saturday's referendum on a new basic law amid angry controversy and manoeuvring that has left the Arab world's most populous country deeply divided and uncertain about the future.

Violence – physical and verbal – is in the air. Last week 49 opposition supporters were beaten and tortured outside the presidential palace by a seemingly well-organised team of thugs, an incident as bad as the notorious "battle of the camels" in Tahrir Square last year. The Brotherhood has been blamed but insists any aggression was "only a reaction" to attacks on its camp. Nine people died.

"If Morsi doesn't back down there will be bloodshed," warned Saeed Ahmad, a grizzled mechanic who came to Ettihadiyeh prepared to become a martyr to defend the freedoms won since Hosni Mubarak was ousted in February 2011. "The Ikhwan (Arabic for the Brotherhood) are traitors to the revolution."

Protests began late last month after Morsi granted himself sweeping powers to push the new constitution through a drafting body that was dominated by Islamists and boycotted by the opposition. Brotherhood premises have been attacked across the country. The city of Mahalla al-Kubra in the Nile delta has even declared itself an autonomous republic.

Many of the draft constitution's 236 articles are bland and unexceptionable, but there is bitter disagreement about the role of Islam and clerical scholars, the definition of family values and the position of the military – all key issues in the messy transition to a post-Mubarak era.

Mohamed ElBaradei, co-ordinator of the newly-formed opposition National Salvation Front, initially demanded the referendum be postponed and the constition's text redrafted, warning that "civil war" could erupt, but now backs a "no" vote. "It is a constitution for the 18th century, not the 21st," protests Mounir Fakhry Abdel-Nour a liberal grandee. "It means Iran on the banks of the Nile."

It could, some admit, have been worse if Salafi fundamentalists had got their way in the constituent assembly before its Christian, secular and liberal members walked out. "For the sake of a slightly better constitution the opposition are risking everything," warns one western observer. "Most people haven't even read it," says another.

Still, vital issues are at stake. The biggest fear is that, having abandoned their initial caution to take control of both legislature and the executive under a president who commanded just 51% of the vote in June, the Ikhwan will be able to use the new constitution to run the courts as well as lower levels of government.

The judiciary – still dominated by Mubarak-era appointees – is especially anxious. "This is the worst period in Egypt's history," said Judge Abdel-Azim al-Ashri after facing intimidation by Morsi supporters. Most judges have refused to supervise the referendum.

"It's not just that the Brotherhood are trying to ram through their own Islamist agendas," argues the commentator Issandr El Amrani, "it is that they are behaving in a high-handed and non-consensual way. Their actions seem to speak to a fear that at this long-awaited moment power is going to be snatched away from them."

Mohamed el-Beltagy, the influential secretary general of the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party, appears to confirm this analysis. "Unfortunately the counter-revolution has succeeded in creating this sense of polarisation," he said. "It's not just made up of those who disagree with the Islamist viewpoint but the felool (remnants of the old regime) and their paid thugs. I do not believe that the problem is the contents of the constitution or presidential decrees. This is an attempt to overturn the table."

Beltagy – flatteringly profiled in western media last year as the acceptable face of moderate Islamism – made waves this week when he said the security services had reported that 60% of the Ettihadiyeh demonstrators were Coptic Christians. "I am just stating a fact," he told the Guardian impassively, refusing to be drawn on the implications of identifying political opponents by their religious affiliation.

Talk of conspiracies is rife on both sides. The anti-Morsi camp warns of the danger of assassinations and hints that the army, now back in its barracks, might need to intervene. The president's chief of staff signalled that if the security forces did not do their job, the Brotherhood would protect itself. Prosecutors are reportedly investigating claims that the UAE government – a fierce opponent of Islamists everywhere – is financing death squads targeting Brotherhood leaders.

Mohamed Badie, the supreme guide of the Brotherhood, used language taken straight from the Mubarak era when he warned in his weekly message of "hidden hands" working to undo the stability achieved by Egypt's post-revolutionary institutions.

On Thursday, Salafi vigilantes burned the car of a critical TV producer. "Private media is the chief impediment to the conclusion of the Islamist project as it intentionally smears our image," explained Gamal Saber, a supporter of the Salafi preacher Hazem Abu Ismail. Other groups have said they will call for jihad if the constitution is defeated.

Morsi's critics call him indecisive, issuing his decree only to rescind most of it in the face of outrage and then announcing and quickly cancelling unpopular tax increases that were seen as vital for a £3bn IMF loan to go ahead.

Opinions are divided on Morsi's core beliefs. "[He] is an arch-pragmatist who makes terrible misjudgments, but he should not be demonised," says a western diplomat.

Egyptians retort that they are still suspicious of the Brotherhood – a long suppressed and famously disciplined organisation whose Islamist ideology is not in doubt, and which has a bad habit of being frank and assertive in Arabic and less so in English.

"For many years I used to believe that we could not have a proper democracy without Islamists taking part," admits Hossam Bahgat of the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights. "But judging from the last few months I realise that I was wrong. Now there is a very clear line between Islamists and others."

The risk is that the current polarisation could make things worse. "I don't believe Morsi set out to be a dictator but he might accidentally wind up becoming one," suggests Elijah Zarwan of the European Council on Foreign Relations thinktank. "The opposition might help him down that road by trying to press their perceived advantage too far. The more confrontational this is the higher the stakes – and the more dangerous it becomes."The hope in the secular revolutionary camp is that the Brotherhood will suffer in the next parliamentary elections because of its poor performance so far. "I am surprised at how fast people are linking the Brotherhood to their bread and butter issues," said activist Amr Gharbeia. "These are the real problems in Egypt. But if they are not settled by votes they will be settled in the streets."

Egyptians are being urged to vote yes to the constitution in order to "move the country forward" – a reference to worries about the economy, jobs and services. The deaths of 50 kindergarten children in a bus crash near Assiut last month – just as Morsi was being hailed for brokering a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza – was a terrible reminder of rickety infrastructure in a country where trains routinely crash, ferries sink and buildings collapse.

"The government failed to accomplish anything that would make us proud of it as a post-revolution administration," the April 6 youth movement said at the time.

Yet for all their divisions, Egyptians' yearning for stability may be enough to get the constitution passed. "Morsi hasn't betrayed the revolution but he's on the way," said Abdel-Aziz, a Cairo telecoms engineer who moonlights as a taxi driver.

Many believe the Brotherhood will pull it off. "Liberal friends of mine voted for Morsi because they said anyone was better than that bastard Mubarak," recalled Ahmed el-Gohary, a businessman and the son of a general, who describes himself unapologetically as a felool. "They said that if we don't like the Brotherhood we could have another revolution and get rid of them. Now they regret it and I keep saying, 'I told you so.' So I am going to vote no to the constitution but I am afraid that it will pass. They have the power of Allah, and that can get anything through."

Timeline: two years of revolution and upheaval

25 January 2011 Egyptian revolution begins as crowds gather to protest against President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo's Tahrir Square.

11 February Mubarak steps down, replaced by the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (Scaf). Army suspends constitution and dissolves parliament. 850 people had died in the so-called 18 days of revolution.

April Mubarak and sons arrested. Mubarak's name removed from public places

May Fifteen die and 200 injured as Muslims and Christians clash in Cairo.

July Thousands start sit-in in Tahrir Square to criticise the military over the slow pace of reform.

August Mubarak goes on trial.

September Protesters storm Israeli embassy in Cairo. The military brings in a state of emergency.

9 October The Maspero demonstration in Cairo; 25 mostly Christian protestoers are killed by police after calling for dissolution of Scaf and resignation of Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi.

November First round of parliamentary elections.

January 2012 The Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party wins 47% of seats in parliament and the Salafi Noor party wins 25%.

May-June Egypt's first free presidential election. Mohamed Morsi of Muslim Brotherhood beats "old regime" candidate Ahmed Shafiq with 51% of vote. Scaf hands over power.

August Morsi outmanoeuvres army and sacks Tantawi as defence minister.

September Morsi slow to respond when demonstrators attack US embassy over an Islamophobic film.

November Morsi hailed internationally for helping broker Gaza ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Morsi takes sweeping powers and rushes through completion of draft constitution. Opposition accuses him of being a "dictator". Mohamed ElBaradei says constitution belongs in "garbage bin of history." Secular liberal forces call for no vote.

15 December Constitutional referendum part one, to be followed by part two on December 22.

This article was amended on 25 January 2013 to remove repetition from the first paragraph.

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