Advertisement

SKIP ADVERTISEMENT

Poll Finds Most Back Obama, With a Split on Party Lines

President Obama begins his second term on Sunday with Americans cautiously optimistic about both the years ahead and his stewardship, but more polarized politically than four years ago and with less lofty hopes.

After a first term of both big achievements and disappointments and the economy still struggling to recover from the financial crisis he inherited, Mr. Obama retains the approval of a slim majority of Americans, 51 percent, according to a pre-inauguration survey for The New York Times and CBS News. That is down from 62 percent soon after he took office four years ago, and conceals a sharp divide: 8 in 10 Republicans disapprove of how he is handling the job, while almost 9 in 10 Democrats approve. Independents are split.

The public’s approval of Mr. Obama’s job performance is similar to George W. Bush’s rating at the start of his second term. But it is lower than the standings for the previous two-term presidents, Bill Clinton (60 percent) and Ronald Reagan (62 percent), who served in less polarized times.

Still, Mr. Obama is in a considerably stronger position as he opens his second term, especially relative to the increasingly unpopular Republicans in Congress. The percentage of Americans who disapprove of Congress — 82 percent — is the highest for a new Congress since The Times and CBS News began asking the question regularly two decades ago. While neither party in Congress gets high marks, the public is far more negative toward Republican lawmakers.

That negativity appears to be causing introspection among some top Republicans. After a retreat this week in which they heard bad news from their own pollsters, House Republicans announced that they would agree to an unconditional three-month increase in the nation’s debt limit without equal spending cuts immediately — a tactical retreat that most likely reflects their sense of their disadvantage against Mr. Obama.

Nearly half the public blames Republicans for the partisan impasse that nearly blocked a needed tax agreement over the holidays, compared with almost one-third who blame Mr. Obama. Independents sided with the president by a two-to-one ratio. Almost half of Americans said the episode made them more pessimistic about Washington’s ability to resolve other problems in the future.

More broadly, Americans remain deeply concerned about the state of the country. Only 38 percent said it was on the right track, compared with 57 percent calling it on the wrong track. Nearly a decade has passed since more people viewed the country on the right track than the wrong.

As for the next fiscal confrontation — over a longer-term increase in the nation’s debt limit, which is essential for the government to borrow to pay existing obligations — the poll had some of its only good news for Republicans. Six in 10 Americans say the borrowing limit should not be raised without the White House and Congress also approving cuts in spending — which had been the Republicans’ position before their retreat — while just 17 percent say the limit should be increased without conditions, which is Mr. Obama’s stance.

“Unless the Republicans hold fast and say, ‘Come to the table and give us cuts and a budget,’ the Democrats will keep saying, ‘We’ll do it later,’ ” said John Asam, 47, an unemployed Republican in Downey, Calif.

While a majority continues to disapprove of Mr. Obama’s handling of annual deficits, 54 percent to 37 percent, Americans favor by about two to one his call to both cut spending and increase taxes instead of cutting spending only, as Republicans would.

“I side with the president on social issues, but I do think it’s important to be moderate on financial issues,” said Anna Kroncke, 33, a psychologist and political independent in Denver who voted for Mr. Obama both times. “That’s where it might be really helpful to compromise with the Republicans.”

But the poll holds other signs that the public sees Mr. Obama as having greater leverage than Republicans. Six in 10 say Mr. Obama will have more influence over the next four years, compared with almost 3 in 10 who say Republicans will hold sway.

“I think Barack Obama will have more influence than the Republicans in Congress because the mood of the nation has changed,” said Sandy Brassard, 52, an independent who is a music teacher in San Francisco. “I’m not sure what will happen with the budget and the debt, but I am very optimistic about gun control and immigration and gay marriage and even Social Security because of his stance and the mood of the country.”

More Americans say that they trust the president over Republicans in Congress to make the right decisions about the economy, budget deficits and taxes — the fiscal issues that could dominate Mr. Obama’s next term. Half favor him on those issues, while about one-third say they trust Republicans more.

On the more recent issue to join the nation’s list of priorities, dealing with gun violence, not quite half say they trust Mr. Obama over Republicans; 47 percent choose the president and 39 percent Republicans.

On illegal immigration, the other issue that Mr. Obama promises to address this year, almost 7 in 10 say they are confident about the president’s ability to deal with the matter. And significant majorities, including most Democrats and independents, also express confidence about Mr. Obama’s ability to make the right decisions regarding Afghanistan, protecting the United States from a terrorist attack and the economy.

Now a president with a record instead of a newcomer, Mr. Obama has seen his favorability among Americans tarnish a bit. Four years ago, 6 in 10 had a favorable opinion, about 1 in 10 did not and 3 in 10 reserved judgment. Now about one-third of the country has an unfavorable view of him, though a plurality — 46 percent — retains a favorable opinion.

Mr. Obama’s resilience despite continued high unemployment and partisan battling partly reflects that twice as many Americans continue to blame his predecessor, Mr. Bush, for the state of the economy. More also blame Wall Street, and about the same number fault Congress as Mr. Obama.

By 48 percent to 22 percent, Americans approve of his cabinet picks, despite criticism that he has favored white men, with women no less approving than men. Four years ago, Mr. Obama’s cabinet choices were supported 71 percent to 22 percent.

As for much of his presidency, significantly more Americans favor his handling of foreign policy than disapprove. And more continue to disapprove of his record on the economy than approve of it, though the margin has narrowed to a statistically insignificant one as the recovery has picked up. Just 42 percent expect the economy to be better in four years than it is today.

The nationwide poll was conducted Jan. 11-15 with 1,110 adults, using land lines and cellphones, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Dalia Sussman and Marina Stefan contributed reporting.

A version of this article appears in print on  , Section A, Page 10 of the New York edition with the headline: Poll Finds Most Back Obama, With a Split On Party Lines. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe

Advertisement

SKIP ADVERTISEMENT